Portfolio Strategy Review Q3 2018

News highlights this quarter: a judge who likes beer, rising interest rate fear, and an intensifying trade war. The US 10-year bond rate is a good proxy for the cost of money. If you need credit to buy a house, car, invest in a business, etc., the rate matters. For...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q2 2018

Crypto kept crashing and Trump keeps bashing; except for his pal Vlad.  The new tax cuts have bolstered US economic growth in this 9th year of economic expansion. Median forecasts for Q2 economic growth are 3.7%, much higher than Q1's 2.2%. The policy may be good...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q1 2018

The Great Melt Up in stocks continued in January, and then it didn’t. After a January peak driven by economic optimism for US tax reform, a swift 10% decline ensued triggered by several factors: an early year rise in interest rates; the tweeter-in-chief’s tough tariff...

Portfolio Strategy Review 2017

Markets not only continued to defy gravity, the ascent accelerated! And the 2018 predictions are in. Drum roll please: Allan Roth: US stocks will return between -21.7% and +34.7%; international stocks between -26.4% and +42.4%. Thanks Mr. Roth. Did you really want...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q3 2017

The last stages of a bull market prompts investment pundits and professionals to make more than their usual predictions about the imminent market declines that are on the horizon. In contrast to the early stages when few are willing to forecast a bull market is in the...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q2 2017

5:59am “OK campers rise and shine and don’t forget your booties……the big question on everybody’s lips is”……do you think the US market is in bubble territory? Feels like Groundhog Day as US stock markets keep rising. Record highs occur almost daily.  Expensive stocks...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q1 2017

This bull market has lasted eight years as the S&P 500 index has returned more than 300%. US stocks sell today at 29x its CAPE ratio vs. its long-term average of 17x. That’s a 70% premium. Pricey. Some of this is due to low interest rates forcing money to chase...

Portfolio Strategy Review 2016

The bull market is long when you hear people in the coffee shop talking about how the Dow Jones Average has finally breached the 20,000 mark.  Who would have imagined record market highs at this point last year, when the indices ended the year in negative territory? ...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q3 2016

Bob Dylan was awarded the Noble Prize for literature this past week. High art and low art patrons debate the merits of how and why a commercial artist should be considered for the prestigious award. It doesn’t have much to do with your money, but art patrons’...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q2 2016

This year’s price action feels a bit like a bear market. The “Brexit” vote in the UK, the dismal first few days of the year, and increased volatility across the board. Yet, the second quarter of 2016 eked out small positive returns for many of the U.S. market indices,...

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