The Rebound from December The business channels keep alarming us about a potential recession and the upside-down yield curve. The stock market ignored the pessimism rebounding from December’s intense selloff. Indeed, stock markets found comfort in the temporary magic...
They Don’t Always Go Up A market decline was overdue. 2018 was the first year since 2008 that over 90% of major asset classes declined. The December declines were the worst since 1931. The 20% decline from September’s market peak pushed us into bear market territory....
Q3 Highlights: A judge who likes beer, rising interest rate fear, and an intensifying trade war. The US 10-year bond rate is a good proxy for the cost of money. If you need credit to buy a house, car, invest in a business, etc., the rate matters. For example, when...
Crypto kept crashing and Trump keeps bashing; except for his pal Vlad. The new tax cuts have bolstered US economic growth in this 9th year of economic expansion. Median forecasts for Q2 economic growth are 3.7%, much higher than Q1’s 2.2%. The policy may be good...
The Great Melt Up in stocks continued in January, and then it didn’t. After a January peak driven by economic optimism for US tax reform, a swift 10% decline ensued triggered by several factors: an early year rise in interest rates; the tweeter-in-chief’s tough tariff...
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