CVA Blog

Trade Tensions Markets always face uncertainty because the future is never known. Recent market activity suggests the uncertainty factor is greater than usual with impeachment hearings, drone strikes in Saudi Arabia, and a messy “Brexit” across the pond. U.S. economic...

Giving Candy to a Baby Since everyone knows the US now has the “greatest economy, the likes of which the world has never seen....” what can be done for an encore? I have some good ideas. First, let’s stimulate the economy with tax cuts. Consumer spending drives 70% of...

The Rebound from December The business channels keep alarming us about a potential recession and the upside-down yield curve. The stock market ignored the pessimism rebounding from December’s intense selloff. Indeed, stock markets found comfort in the temporary magic...

They Don’t Always Go Up A market decline was overdue. 2018 was the first year since 2008 that over 90% of major asset classes declined. The December declines were the worst since 1931. The 20% decline from September’s market peak pushed us into bear market territory....

The Judge Likes His Beer and Rising Interest Fear  The US 10-year bond rate is a good proxy for the cost of money. If you need credit to buy a house, car, invest in a business, etc., the rate matters. For example, when mortgage rates go up housing is less affordable...

Crypto Crashing, Trump Bashing (except his pal Vlad) The new tax cuts have bolstered US economic growth in this 9th year of economic expansion. Median forecasts for Q2 economic growth are 3.7%, much higher than Q1’s 2.2%. The policy may be good politics, and might be...