Portfolio Strategy Review Q3 2018

Q3 Highlights: A judge who likes beer, rising interest rate fear, and an intensifying trade war. The US 10-year bond rate is a good proxy for the cost of money. If you need credit to buy a house, car, invest in a business, etc., the rate matters. For example, when...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q2 2018

Crypto kept crashing and Trump keeps bashing; except for his pal Vlad. The new tax cuts have bolstered US economic growth in this 9th year of economic expansion. Median forecasts for Q2 economic growth are 3.7%, much higher than Q1’s 2.2%. The policy may be good...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q1 2018

The Great Melt Up in stocks continued in January, and then it didn’t. After a January peak driven by economic optimism for US tax reform, a swift 10% decline ensued triggered by several factors: an early year rise in interest rates; the tweeter-in-chief’s tough tariff...

Portfolio Strategy Review 2017

Markets not only continued to defy gravity, the ascent accelerated! And the 2018 predictions are in. Drum roll please: Allan Roth: US stocks will return between -21.7% and +34.7%; international stocks between -26.4% and +42.4%. Thanks Mr. Roth. Did you really want...

Making Sense of Commission-Driven Advice

A referral from a trusted adviser like one’s CPA usually helps to take some risk out of the selection decision. However, just because a CPA works with numbers and is tax savvy doesn’t mean they are fully aware of the investment landscape nor motives that may work...

Financial Advice Only a Banker Could Love

Many banks now operate as a one-stop shop for all your financial needs. The convenience factor is seductive. To what outcome this “all-things, to all-people” boilerplate approach? This is a tale of a community bank, acquired several times, and now part of a publicly...

When the Message is Clear

I was doing a 401k education and enrollment session at one of the health care clinics I service. One of the attendees was especially attentive and she was taking very detailed notes. After finishing the presentation, she approached me for some more information: “I...

Bitcoin, Buffet, and Bubbles

What We Know Bitcoin – Selling off 20% today after a meteoric rise.  But what is it? Some new store of value? New mode of transacting? How is it priced? I don’t know it well enough to explain it. And I don’t care. It hasn’t been around long enough to tell if it’s a...