Portfolio Strategy Review Q1 2019

The Rebound from December The business channels keep alarming us about a potential recession and the upside-down yield curve. The stock market ignored the pessimism rebounding from December’s intense selloff. Indeed, stock markets found comfort in the temporary magic...

Portfolio Strategy Review 2018

They Don’t Always Go Up A market decline was overdue. 2018 was the first year since 2008 that over 90% of major asset classes declined. The December declines were the worst since 1931. The 20% decline from September’s market peak pushed us into bear market territory....

Portfolio Strategy Review Q3 2018

Q3 Highlights: A judge who likes beer, rising interest rate fear, and an intensifying trade war. The US 10-year bond rate is a good proxy for the cost of money. If you need credit to buy a house, car, invest in a business, etc., the rate matters. For example, when...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q2 2018

Crypto kept crashing and Trump keeps bashing; except for his pal Vlad. The new tax cuts have bolstered US economic growth in this 9th year of economic expansion. Median forecasts for Q2 economic growth are 3.7%, much higher than Q1’s 2.2%. The policy may be good...

Portfolio Strategy Review Q1 2018

The Great Melt Up in stocks continued in January, and then it didn’t. After a January peak driven by economic optimism for US tax reform, a swift 10% decline ensued triggered by several factors: an early year rise in interest rates; the tweeter-in-chief’s tough tariff...

Portfolio Strategy Review 2017

Markets not only continued to defy gravity, the ascent accelerated! And the 2018 predictions are in. Drum roll please: Allan Roth: US stocks will return between -21.7% and +34.7%; international stocks between -26.4% and +42.4%. Thanks Mr. Roth. Did you really want...